Learn to trade them properly
We trade for a living, and we've written down the way we price these markets as a course. It's free while we're still writing it, and the first module's already up.
See the courseBiggest movers today
This is where we teach prediction market trading, the way we'd have liked to learn it ourselves. You can read the course for free, trade the practice markets without any money and check live esports odds built from real match data, and we'd start by opening a market and placing a practice trade (it only takes a minute).
Esports, live data All esports →
Practice markets All markets →
These move on their own through the day. Open any of them and you'll see the chart, how it settles and a ticket that works out what your trade would be worth at your own probability (we'd pick one you know a bit about, since that's where it gets interesting).
The course All modules →
Honestly, the best way to use this is to read module one with a practice market open next to it. We're writing the rest one at a time, so if there's a topic you'd like us to get to sooner, email us and we'll move it up.
Prices are probabilities
We'd start here. When a contract trades at 63¢ the market is telling you it thinks 63%, and once that clicks you'll see why the Yes and No prices nearly always add up to a little more than 100.
Fees, spreads and your real break-even
The number on the screen isn't quite the number you pay, and we'll show you how to work out the probability you really need once the fee and the spread come off (it's where we see most beginners lose money without ever noticing).
Expected value and your own forecast
You need your own number before a price means anything to you. This is how we turn a view into that number and then decide whether a small edge is worth the bother.