Essays

These are longer than the lessons, and each one takes a single question we kept running into while trading and digs into it properly, usually starting from published research such as academic papers, exchange documentation and decades of betting records. We check every fact against its original source and calculate every number in code before anything goes up, so they won't appear very often.

15 NOVEMBER 2026 · 7 MIN READ

The favourite-longshot bias: why cheap prediction market contracts lose money

Contracts priced at 10¢ or less on Kalshi lost over 60% of what went into them, so we've gone through the research behind that figure and worked out how you can use it in your own trading.

If you're new to prediction markets, you'll probably get more out of the essays once you've read the first module of the course, since they assume you're comfortable reading a price as a probability. They're written for people who actually trade, though, so we've tried to finish every one with something you can use straight away, and if there's a question you'd like us to investigate next, email us and we'll put it on the list.