Learn
We're writing the nine modules one at a time and putting each one up as soon as we're happy with it, so the first is open now and the rest will follow over the coming weeks. Every module finishes with a few exercises you can check against the practice markets, and they're all free while we're writing them.
Prices are probabilities
We'd start here. When a contract trades at 63¢ the market is telling you it thinks 63%, and once that clicks you'll see why the Yes and No prices nearly always add up to a little more than 100.
Fees, spreads and your real break-even
The number on the screen isn't quite the number you pay, and we'll show you how to work out the probability you really need once the fee and the spread come off (it's where we see most beginners lose money without ever noticing).
Expected value and your own forecast
You need your own number before a price means anything to you. This is how we turn a view into that number and then decide whether a small edge is worth the bother.
How much to put on
We'll derive the Kelly criterion with you and then explain why we, like most traders, only ever bet a fraction of it. Being right doesn't help much if a bad week wipes you out first.
Arbitrage and where it breaks
Two venues pricing the same event differently looks like free money. Usually it isn't, since the settlement wording or the timing is slightly different, and we'll show you how to check before you trust the gap.
Making markets
Here you quote both sides and get paid the spread for holding risk you didn't choose. We'll cover how we'd manage the position that builds up while you're doing it.
Esports markets
Best-of-three and best-of-five series have tidy maths behind them. Once you know it you can tell when a live price after the first map has moved too far or not far enough.
Keeping score
Calibration and the Brier score are how you find out if your forecasts are any good. A month of honest scoring will teach you more than a lucky streak ever does.
The simulation engine
This is a full season of simulated markets against the clock, fees included, so you can see what your process does over hundreds of trades before real money is involved.