Launch event: new device announced before the keynote ends?
How it resolves
It’s a Yes if a new piece of hardware is announced on stage during the keynote, and a No if the whole thing goes by without one.
What we'd look at
You rarely go into a keynote blind, since leaks and supplier reports usually give the game away weeks before. If they all say the same thing we'd expect Yes to be expensive, and if they've gone quiet we'd want it a fair bit cheaper (and we'd be suspicious of anyone paying 90¢).
About practice markets
The price here is simulated, which means nobody's on the other side and nothing you do will move it. We built it that way on purpose, because the habit we want you to pick up is checking a price against your own number before you trade, and that's far easier to practise when a mistake costs you nothing. Try putting in a probability that's a few points away from the price and watch what happens to the expected value and the Kelly stake (that's the whole course in miniature).