A new open AI model tops the main leaderboard this month?
How it resolves
This settles Yes if an openly released model sits at number one on the main public leaderboard at any point before the month ends.
What we'd look at
This one's hard to price, because the leaderboard changes quickly and new models arrive with almost no warning. We'd count the serious releases due this month and look at how far the best open model is from the top (if it's only a couple of points behind, we'd take the Yes seriously).
About practice markets
The price here is simulated, which means nobody's on the other side and nothing you do will move it. We built it that way on purpose, because the habit we want you to pick up is checking a price against your own number before you trade, and that's far easier to practise when a mistake costs you nothing. Try putting in a probability that's a few points away from the price and watch what happens to the expected value and the Kelly stake (that's the whole course in miniature).